Dejstvo je, da podnebne spremembe povsod po svetu že vplivajo na konkurenčnost turistične ponudbe in povzročajo pomembne spremembe turističnih tokov. Tiste destinacije in ponudniki, ki bodo aktivno varovali okolje, bodo imeli veliko konkurenčno prednost, obenem pa bodo zagotavljali višjo kakovost bivanja lokalne skupnosti.
Dokument je bil pripravljen v sklopu projekta LIFE17 CARE4CLIMATE, v katerem je Občina Postojna in javni zavod Zavod Znanje Postojna, OE turizem sodeloval z Umanotero, Slovenska fundacija za trajnostni razvoj in Društvom Focus.
Vulnerability Analysis of Tourism in the Municipality of Postojna Due to Climate Change
Despite a long-standing tradition, tourism in the Municipality of Postojna is still recognized as a promising and developing economic sector. A key consideration in analyzing its vulnerability to climate change is the fact that the main tourism products attracting the highest number of visitors to the destination (cave and museum tourism) are not directly dependent on weather or climate. Outdoor tourism activities (sports and recreational activities, exploring cultural heritage, nature observation, events) and outdoor infrastructure are more exposed to climate change—this includes a large portion of rural tourism.
Since weather conditions affect human comfort, the expected rise in temperatures and altered precipitation patterns will impact this segment of tourism across all seasons. Indirectly, tourism in Postojna as a whole is exposed to climate conditions, as it is anticipated that climate change will globally influence destination competitiveness and cause significant shifts in tourist flows.
Since the 1960s, the climate in the Municipality of Postojna has already warmed by 1.7 °C, annual precipitation has decreased by over 10%, and snow cover has more than halved. The warming trend is expected to continue. By mid-century, the average air temperature may rise by an additional 1.8 °C. The number of hot days with temperatures above 30 °C will increase in summer, and heatwaves will become more frequent, intense, and prolonged. While warmer summers may initially enhance the destination’s attractiveness, by mid-century, outdoor tourism activities will become increasingly uncomfortable, especially in urban areas. There will be a greater need to develop summer tourism offerings in cooler, higher-altitude areas, near water sources, and in indoor (air-conditioned) spaces. Heat stress in the workplace will also increase for tourism workers, which may reduce the appeal of tourism-related professions.
In warmer springs and autumns, the physiological strain from cold during outdoor activities will decrease, and the warming of the destination could enhance its attractiveness in these seasons. In winter, despite the temperature rise, cold stress will remain significant—especially when combined with the bora wind. Conditions for winter outdoor activities will not improve substantially. However, higher winter temperatures will shorten the heating season and reduce heating costs for tourist service providers (accommodations, museums, restaurants, etc.).
In the future, the total annual precipitation in the destination may slightly increase, while the number of rainy days is expected to decline. Longer dry periods are projected in summer and autumn, interrupted by intense rainfall events. The number of days with snow cover will continue to decline. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will affect nature in the destination, which is an invaluable resource for tourism development. Biodiversity and forest health—which cover nearly 70% of the municipality’s area—may deteriorate. Climate change will also impact agricultural production, which in turn affects the growing gastronomic tourism offering based on local products. The growing season will lengthen, making it possible to cultivate more heat-demanding crops.
As global warming continues, cooler destinations and those with offerings independent of summer heat will gain attractiveness as summer tourist spots—this is a competitive advantage for the Postojna destination. With worsening conditions for summer tourism in Mediterranean coastal destinations and for skiing tourism in lower-altitude mountain resorts, Postojna will face strong competition from destinations also aiming to extend their tourist seasons into spring and autumn.
The vulnerability of tourism in the Municipality of Postojna is not only dependent on the aforementioned climate impacts but also on the destination’s ability to adapt. Thanks to the diversity of its tourism offerings, untapped potential in rural tourism development, institutional organization, and economic resilience, the destination has a relatively strong capacity to adapt to climate change. Overall, the vulnerability of the tourism sector in Postojna is assessed as moderate. However, the vulnerability of segments linked to outdoor activities is expected to become high by mid-century. Currently, limited private entrepreneurial initiative and low interest in tourism-related employment within the local community pose a greater threat to the destination than climate change impacts alone. This could prevent the destination from fully capitalizing on the tourism opportunities brought by climate change.
Among the proposed measures to reduce climate-related risks for the tourism sector in the Municipality of Postojna, the highest priority is given to informing, raising awareness, and training stakeholders in the tourism sector. This should improve the image of tourism within the local environment as a promising long-term economic activity and increase awareness of not only the threats but also the opportunities related to climate change. Other key areas of action include adapting tourism offerings and marketing strategies to climate change, mitigating the effects of extreme weather events, actively managing protected natural areas, securing climate-related funding from various programs and funds, and participating in partnership projects related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
It is a fact that climate change is already affecting the competitiveness of tourist offerings worldwide and causing significant changes in tourist flows. Those destinations and providers who actively protect the environment will have a substantial competitive advantage while also ensuring a higher quality of life for the local community.
This document was prepared as part of the LIFE17 CARE4CLIMATE project, in which the Municipality of Postojna and the public institution Zavod Znanje Postojna, Tourism Department, collaborated with Umanotera – The Slovenian Foundation for Sustainable Development and the Focus Association for Sustainable Development.
